Power of Central Banks Moved By Markets

draghi_bernankeMario Draghi verbally intervened once again and does not hesitate to tell anything. He said that the ECB is considering further non-standard monetary policy tools and will deploy them if circumstances warrant. He is also aware of the fact that the measures could have unintended consequences but the ECB will be allegedly able to manage them appropriately. He also said that the banking union and supervision of the ECB over the main banks within Eurozone could be one of solutions. But the banking union according to some other sources will not be able operate earlier than at the end of 2014. Important point is that it cannot prevent any crisis because problems within the banking sectors are not coming, they are already here. One of many examples could be the Deutsche Bank which is allegedly horrible undercapitalized according to a top U.S. banking regulator Thomas Hoeing. The Deutsche Bank CEO said that everything is ok and that the bank had made enormous progress on its core tier-one capital ratio. He said that the DB is the one of the best capitalized banks in the world compared to its peers after capital raise of almost 5 billion euros. So if this bank is one of the best capitalized compared to others and it is true at the same time that it is in fact undercapitalized than what the situation in other banks looks like? And European Union finance ministers were dealing about the set of rules for assigning losses when banks fail on Friday. The new rules should set standards for how to prop up or shut down failing banks, along with requirements for the kind of backstops each country must have in place. We will see what they deliver to us.

European car sales fell to a 20-year low in May 2013. The most hit car makers were PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG), Renault SA (RNO) and Fiat SpA (F) – reading France and Italy. Registrations dropped 5.9 percent to 1.08 million vehicles from 1.15 million a year earlier. According to analysts, the EU market will shrink by 29 percent from the pre-crisis peak, and may stagnate at that level quite a long. Main reasons behind are high youth unemployment and aging population and of course financial uncertainty connected with the crisis.

As predicted Cyprus economy is driven into a deeper recession, leading to a further rise in unemployment and making fiscal consolidation all the more difficult. Cyprus agreed on rules of rescue which will cause its long and painful death. According to some news Cypriot president beg for revision of the bailout package and easing of strong rules. He wrote: “I urge you to review the possibilities in order to determine a viable prospect for Cyprus and its people.” We will hear for sure about the country in the future.

Some analysts have pointed to Japan as the next financial crisis trigger. But it could happen anywhere today; for example in China. It seems that counterparty mistrust among financial institutions reached extreme levels in China last week where so called Shibor, or the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, has been surging. The rate is simply a barometer of liquidity in the Chinese credit markets. The situation was probably dangerous because the PBOC had to intervene to calm the markets and provide liquidity. Fitch also warns about China´s credit bubble and problems with its shadow banking system. “There is no transparency in the shadow banking system, and systemic risk is rising. We have no idea who the borrowers are, who the lenders are, and what the quality of assets is, and this undermines signaling,” said Charlene Chu from the Fitch.

It was the FED´s press conference which was the most monitor event of the last week. And what are the highlights of Bernanke’s press conference? First job gains and housing has increased consumer confidence, second most Fed members are not in favor of agency debt, third monetary policy will continue to support the economic recovery, fourth bond purchases may “moderate” later this year, and finally bond purchases could end around the mid of 2014. But the fact is that the Federal Open Market Committee left the monthly pace of bond purchases unchanged at $85 billion. Tricky is that only the idea that the “drugs” will be taken away from the addicted economy suffices to generate a significant declining effect in almost all markets. No. No. There will be not be any end of this policy.

Matúš Pošvanc

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